Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor QUANTIFYING VOLATILITY AND THE PROBABILITY OF DAILY PRECIPITATION EXTREMES

DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as the result of work sponsored by the California Energy Commission. It does not necessarily represent the views of the Energy Commission, its employees or the State of California. The Energy Commission, the State of California, its employees, contractors and subcontractors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the California Energy Commission nor has the California Energy Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report. and we gratefully acknowledge their input. We thank D. Rominger for programming support. Results of this study contribute to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Science for Peace and Prosperity project (SFP 981044) " Extreme precipitation events: their origins, predictability and impacts. " Please cite this report as follows: ii iii Preface The Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program supports public interest energy research and development that will help improve the quality of life in California by bringing environmentally safe, affordable, and reliable energy services and products to the marketplace. The PIER Program, managed by the California Energy Commission (Energy Commission), conducts public interest research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects to benefit California's electricity and natural gas ratepayers. The PIER Program strives to conduct the most promising public interest energy research by partnering with RD&D entities, including individuals, businesses, utilities, and public or private research institutions. PIER funding efforts are focused on the following RD&D program areas: by efforts at other research institutions. Priority research areas defined in PIER's five‐year Climate Change Research Plan are: monitoring, analysis, and modeling of climate; analysis of options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; assessment of physical impacts and of adaptation strategies; and analysis of the economic consequences of both climate change impacts and the efforts designed to reduce emissions. The California Climate Change Center Report Series details ongoing Center‐sponsored research. As interim project results, the information contained in these reports may change; authors should be contacted for the most recent project results. By providing ready access to this timely research, the Center seeks to inform the public and expand dissemination of climate change information, thereby leveraging collaborative efforts and increasing the benefits of this research to California's citizens, environment, and economy. Figure …